All Reports


October 29, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We think Q3 results will go a long way in giving the Street incremental conviction in the growth trajectory going forward. Performance advertising revenue growth re-accelerated implying monetization initiatives launched last year continue to yield…

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October 9, 2024

Estimates update

By Vasily Karasyov

we are updating our estimate of subscription revenue for Q2 FY25. Q2 FY25: We expect subscription revenue of $136m, marketplace & other revenue of $40m and total company revenue of $176m. We are modeling adjusted gross…

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October 7, 2024

Acceleration of Platform revenue growth looks very doable

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we show that an acceleration in Platform revenue growth in FY25 looks doable given the growth trajectory of the existing revenue streams and the opportunity presented by the partnership with TTD and…

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September 18, 2024

The size and potential of shopper marketing is still not fully understood

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that the current revenue contribution as well as the growth potential of TTD’s shopper marketing business is still not fully understood at this point. We estimate that shopper marketing is on track to…

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September 13, 2024

Good news re: ad revenue growth structure

By Vasily Karasyov

Our Buy thesis is predicated on the argument that the recent and continuing product and monetization improvements will result in upside to the current consensus estimates. In this note we show that, according to our…

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September 4, 2024

Estimates update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results. We are lowering our price target to $17 and maintain Neutral rating. we now expect the following results: Q3 FY24: We are modeling Create Solutions revenue of…

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August 13, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q2 FY24 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. We currently expect RDDT to report the following results: Q3 FY24: Average Daily Uniques (DAUq) of 96m; $275m in advertising…

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August 12, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results. We are lowering our price target to $17 and maintain Neutral rating. we now expect the following results: Q3 FY24: We are modeling Create Solutions revenue of…

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August 12, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are raising our 12 month price target to $107 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q3 FY24: we are modeling Software Platform revenue of $754m and Adjusted Ebitda of $558m, Apps revenue…

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August 9, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating estimates following Q2 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. We are now modeling Q3 revenue of $618m and Adjusted Ebitda of $248m. We expect full FY24 revenue of $2,432m and…

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August 8, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The question now is how much upside there is to Q3 and Q4 estimates and what will Fy25 look like as get get closer to it. Q2 results and guide for Q3 once again show…

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August 8, 2024

Updating estimates following Q1 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q1 FY25 report. We maintain Neutral rating and adjust our price target to $23.50 to reflect the recent valuation multiple compression. Q2 FY25: We expect subscription revenue of $176m, marketplace…

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August 8, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q21 report, our revised forecast is below. Our price target and rating remain unchanged. For Q3 FY24, we expect Connected TV revenue of $63m, Desktop revenue of $27m and…

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August 7, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The beat is smaller than in previous quarters since AXON 2 launched but in line with the company’s message of Software Platform revenue growing in the mid-single digits Q/Q absent software improvements similar to the…

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August 7, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q2 FY24 results. We are raising our price target to $58 to reflect our updated forecast. Our estimates for Q3 FY24 are: 10,445K digital-only subs at quarter end Digital-only…

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