The New York Times Co


February 7, 2024

Looks like a new problem but we have seen it before

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q4 FY23 was the first quarter since NYT embarked on the business model transformation to digital when the news cycle proved to be a negative and instead of just helping drive digital…

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February 7, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The quarter looks on the weaker side. Digital advertising revenue decline was a little below the low end of the guidance. Digital-only ARPU growth decelerated 90bps v. Q3 which is likely disappointing for the bulls….

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November 8, 2023

The story needs a tie breaker

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q3 results and the guidance for Q4 illustrate well our thesis that neither bull nor bear case is likely to emerge as long as the current operating trends continue. On the positive…

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November 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Digital-only subs generally in-line with what we modeled, digital advertising revenue on the high end of the guidance and operating costs as expected. Digital-only ARPU up Q/Q 1.4% which what bulls want to see. Guidance…

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August 8, 2023

Business going well but the stock could use a new bull case

By Vasily Karasyov

We don’t think that anyone doubts at this point that the company successfully transformed its business model to digital and that the digital-only subscribers goal is doable. The success of this transition was a bull…

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August 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Digital-only subs only slightly worse than expected but ad revenue and Ebitda well ahead, digital-only ARPU up Q/Q and Y/Y as expected plus a solid guidance for Q3. Looks like the stock should get credit…

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May 10, 2023

Model update following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Our estimates for Q2 FY23 are: 9,226K digital-only subs at quarter end Digital-only subscription revenue of $271m Total subscription revenue of…

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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Worse than expected digital advertising revenue and continued Y/Y decline in Q2 is where bears will probably focus today. On the bright side, digital-only subs net adds seem to be run-rating at around 200K a…

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April 27, 2023

Updating estimates ahead of Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q1 report. Our revised12 month price target of 440 is based on 16x EV/FY25 Adjusted Ebitda; we maintain Neutral rating. Our estimates for Q1 FY23 are: 9,053 digital-only…

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February 8, 2023

A meeting with the CEO and CFO on February 22nd

By Vasily Karasyov

Cannonball Research is hosting an in-person Group Meeting with New York Times (NYT) on Wednesday, February 22nd in New York. Participating Management: Meredith Kopit Levien – President & CEO, Roland Caputo – EVP & CFO,…

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February 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Financial metrics came in better than expected across the board, but total digital-only subs were below our expectations. We see the results as solid. Bears were most probably looking for a miss in digital advertising…

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January 23, 2023

A meeting with the CEO and CFO on February 22nd

By Vasily Karasyov

Cannonball Research is hosting an in-person Group Meeting with New York Times (NYT) on Wednesday, February 22nd in New York. Participating Management: Meredith Kopit Levien – President & CEO, Roland Caputo – EVP & CFO,…

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November 2, 2022

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

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August 8, 2022

Correction

By Vasily Karasyov

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