Roku, Inc.


March 24, 2024

News from DIS support ROKU bull case; a couple of points on FY24;

By Vasily Karasyov

Our Buy thesis is based on our belief that the estimates are beatable at this point and the stock price will go up after beat and raise quarters. The bear arguments that have weighed on…

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February 22, 2024

Updating estimates following Q4 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $722m and gross profit of $376m, Devices revenue of $129m and gross profit of…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The beat is not as big as the Street got used to although the guide is a little more optimistic than in recent quarters… It would be helpful to hear on the call if video…

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February 13, 2024

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates ahead of the company’s Q4 report. Our full FY24 forecast, rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $700m and gross profit of $364m, Player…

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November 26, 2023

Upgrading to Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We are upgrading ROKU shares to buy from Neutral as we now believe that room for upside to FY24 consensus forecast is enough to allow for more meaningful upward estimates revisions than we have seen…

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November 2, 2023

Updating estimates following Q3 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q3 results and Q4 guidance. We are adjusting our price target to $88 and Maintain Neutral rating. Our revised forecast is: Q4 FY23: We expect Platform revenue of $807m…

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November 1, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat was expected, Adjusted Ebitda guide for Q4 is probably the biggest surprise. A couple of things stand out in the Letter to Shareholders, in our view. The language about advertising trends is getting…

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October 26, 2023

Updating estimates ahead of Q3 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to incorporate the preannouncement issued on September 6th. We are also adjusting our price target to $63 to reflect the recent EV/Gross Profit multiple compression. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

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July 28, 2023

Updating estimates post Q2 FY23

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q2 results. We are raising our price target to $94 to reflect updated estimates and the current EV/Gross Profit multiple and maintain Neutral rating. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

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July 27, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another beat in the Platform segment. It seems that the forward commentary in the Shareholder Letter is a touch more optimistic this quarter: in addition to the now usual language about the macro uncertainty it…

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July 19, 2023

Revising assumptions for the remainder of FY23 and FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating the assumptions underlying our estimates for Q3 and Q4 to reflect the current advertising trends and the potential impact of the writers’ and actors’ strikes. As a result, our estimates for Platform…

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June 12, 2023

Framing expectations for programmatic revenue; a lesson from Hulu

By Vasily Karasyov

The Street is currently focused on sizing up potential incremental revenue resulting from ROKU opening its ad inventory to outside programmatic demand. As we discuss below, this decision is unlikely to contribute materially in the…

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April 28, 2023

Updating estimates following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. We are trimming our price target to $62.50 and maintain Neutral rating. Q2 FY23: We expect Platform revenue of $666m and…

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April 26, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat across the board and revenue guide in line with the consensus unlike what we saw in previous quarters. A couple of things stand out. First, assuming Device revenue seasonality in line with last…

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March 24, 2023

The Roku Channel matters a lot now and will matter more and more

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis shows that The Roku Channel’s importance in driving video advertising revenue growth will only increase with time as ROKU’s access to third party inventory sources becomes more limited. We also believe that this…

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