All Reports


March 24, 2023

The Roku Channel matters a lot now and will matter more and more

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis shows that The Roku Channel’s importance in driving video advertising revenue growth will only increase with time as ROKU’s access to third party inventory sources becomes more limited. We also believe that this…

Read More >>

March 14, 2023

An inconvenient nuance of programmatic connected TV

By Vasily Karasyov

As macro headwinds built throughout last year programmatic connected TV growth rates remained constant in Q3 and Q4 while pressure on the rest of the connected TV advertising spending kept increasing. As a result, connected…

Read More >>

March 2, 2023

Attention TMT buysiders! Proof points keep building up, it’s time to take a closer look

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that Q4 results and the guidance for Q1 and full FY23, in line with expectations (equals a raise in this environment for ad tech names), once again highlight the fact that DV offers…

Read More >>

March 1, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 results ahead of expectations, guidance for Q1 and full FY23 (!) in line with the consensus but light compared to our Street-high forecast. Although not the usual beat-and-raise, we think the stock should get…

Read More >>

March 1, 2023

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates to reflect Q4 FY22 results. Our Neutral rating and price target of $9 remain unchanged. Q1 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.1m, Device segment revenue of $235m and gross profit…

Read More >>

February 28, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 results in the all important Platform+ segment are below expectations so is the guidance for Q1. One possible explanation for the soft guide is that VZIO is switching to the strategy ROKU deployed in…

Read More >>

February 27, 2023

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results and the guidance for Q1. For Q1 FY23, we expect Connected TV revenue of $44m, Desktop revenue of $27m and Mobile revenue of $40m. We expect…

Read More >>

February 17, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results and the guidance for Q1. We are raising our price target to $79 to reflect recent EV/Gross Profit recovery. Our updated estimates are: Q1 FY23: We expect…

Read More >>

February 15, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

As expected, a replay of Q3 with a strong beat and cautions/conservative guidance and commentary on Q1 revenue trends. The shareholder letter calls out an improvement is some advertising verticals so far this year while…

Read More >>

February 15, 2023

Decoupling continues

By Vasily Karasyov

Q1 guidance once again shows that (i) TTD is operating and gaining share in the pocket of the connected TV market that has decoupled from the direct sold ad spend some time ago and continues…

Read More >>

February 15, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 revenue are softish by TTD standards but guidance for Q4 revenue is much better than we expected and ahead of the consensus. Most likely explanation, in our view, is strength in connected TV as…

Read More >>

February 9, 2023

It was actually better than it looked

By Vasily Karasyov

Going into Q4 earnings we argued that If the report confirms that the management’s comments on Q3 were correct and there is no further deterioration in Software Platform top line trends, a new bull case,…

Read More >>

February 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We see the results, guidance for Q1 and the commentary (no further deterioration in the mobile app market) in the letter to shareholders as positive for the stock. We believe that for a new bull…

Read More >>

February 8, 2023

A usual quarter but with a bearish twist this time

By Vasily Karasyov

This would have been a usual RAMP quarter with in line results followed by in line guidance for the next quarter if not for the cautious commentary on the likely revenue trajectory in FY24. In…

Read More >>

February 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 Adjusted Oibda slightly ahead, guidance for Q1 in line when adjusted for the timing of the event in Saudi Arabia, guidance for the full FY23 better than our model by 3% at mid point….

Read More >>