All Reports


February 22, 2024

Updating estimates following Q4 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $722m and gross profit of $376m, Devices revenue of $129m and gross profit of…

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February 19, 2024

Back to smoother sailing

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the main takeaway from TTD’s Q4 results is that the October air pocket was an isolated event with no impact on the growth in FY24. We expect bears’ arguments now to center…

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February 19, 2024

The closer you look, the better it is

By Vasily Karasyov

Bulls and bears are asking the same question: how sustainable is the revenue growth in the Software Platform segment? We argued before that it is more durable than it may look and Q4 report delivered…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The beat is not as big as the Street got used to although the guide is a little more optimistic than in recent quarters… It would be helpful to hear on the call if video…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Better than usual beat and guidance show the soft October patch is behind us now. The question is how much upside to FY24 estimates. We continue to believe that as we go through the year…

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February 14, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Both segments’ results ahead of expectations, Q1 FY24 guidance is also better than the consensus expectations. A couple of things to point out: (i) The Shareholder Letter mentions Y/Y growth in the mobile app advertising…

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February 13, 2024

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates ahead of the company’s Q4 report. Our full FY24 forecast, rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $700m and gross profit of $364m, Player…

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February 11, 2024

Back in the “show me” territory

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that for the stock to work from here RAMP will have to show a sustained acceleration in organic revenue growth as well as the benefits of the acquisition of Habu. The company has…

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February 7, 2024

Looks like a new problem but we have seen it before

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q4 FY23 was the first quarter since NYT embarked on the business model transformation to digital when the news cycle proved to be a negative and instead of just helping drive digital…

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February 7, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The quarter looks on the weaker side. Digital advertising revenue decline was a little below the low end of the guidance. Digital-only ARPU growth decelerated 90bps v. Q3 which is likely disappointing for the bulls….

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February 4, 2024

So, about Prime Video ads and revenue growth…

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we argue that the bear case centered around the negative impact the introduction of Prime Video advertising will have on TTD’s revenue growth trajectory is based on what we see as low…

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January 8, 2024

What M&E trends in FY23 tell us about FY24 and beyond

By Vasily Karasyov

With the strikes in Hollywood over, M&E may prove to be a driver of variance versus expectations in FY24. Both, bulls and bears have been wrong about the trajectory of this volatile revenue stream in…

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December 27, 2023

Updating estimates; introducing Q1 FY24 forecast

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q4 report, our revised forecast is as follows: For Q4 FY23, we expect Connected TV revenue of $62m, Desktop revenue of $30m and Mobile revenue of $69m. We…

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December 21, 2023

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We are modeling $48m in Measurement revenue, $84m in activation and $12m in Supply-side revenue. Our Adjusted Ebitda forecast is $39m…

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December 18, 2023

Growth is more durable than it looks; a deeper dive into the key metrics

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis of the key metrics trajectory in Q3, the first full quarter of AXON 2, gives us incremental conviction in sustainability of Software Platform revenue growth. As we show below, Q/Q progression of installs…

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