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November 12, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 FY25. For Q4 FY25, we expect Connected TV revenue of $88m, Desktop revenue of $32m and Mobile revenue of $76m. We expect total revenue of $196m, Adjusted Ebitda…

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November 12, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 FY25. For Q4 FY25, we expect Connected TV revenue of $88m, Desktop revenue of $32m and Mobile revenue of $76m. We expect total revenue of $196m, Adjusted Ebitda…

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November 10, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates to reflect Q3 results and the latest guidance for FY25. We are adjusting our price target to $12.50 to reflect the updated estimates and the currentl valuation. We now expect…

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November 7, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 report. We are now modeling Q4 revenue of $841m, Adjusted Ebitda of $375m and adjusted diluted EPS of$0.62. We expect FY26 revenue of $3,392m, Adjusted Ebitda of $1,381m…

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November 6, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q3 looks like a quarter the Street was used to before Q4 FY24 print. In our view, earnings reports like this will ultimately lead to a re-rating. On the call we will be looking for…

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November 6, 2025

Suspending coverage

By Vasily Karasyov

Due to a reallocation of resources, we are suspending coverage of NYT.  As a result, our previous rating, price target, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.  Our last rating was Neutral and our price target…

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November 5, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Looks like Unity Vector is working. Grow segment revenue up 11% Q/Q implying Unity Vector probaly growing at around double that rate (will look for clarity on the call). The Q4 guide for Grow revenue…

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November 1, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q3 FY25 report. Our price target and rating remain unchanged. We currently expect RDDT to report the following results: Q4 FY25: Average Daily Uniques (DAUq) of 119m; $623m in advertising…

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October 31, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 FY25 report. We are raising our 12 month price target to $135. Q4 FY25 We expect Platform revenue of $1,90m and gross profit of $619m, Devices revenue of $161m…

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October 30, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q3 results and the Q4 guide are supportive of the longer-term story but can prove to be not strong enough not to pressure the stock in the short term. We estimate the Platform segment revenue…

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October 22, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q2 FY26 report. We maintain our Neutral rating and adjust our price target to $30 to reflect the updated estimates and the prevailing valuation multiple. Q2 FY26: We expect…

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September 28, 2025

Revisiting the Buy thesis

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that our fairly straightforward Buy thesis remains intact. First, MGNI offers steady top-line growth with potential for upside. Second, the current relatively undemanding EV/Adjusted EBITDA multiple should continue to be supported by the…

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September 22, 2025

The fruit is hanging lower now

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that we may see a shift in advertising revenue growth drivers in the second half of FY25 from what we saw in Q2. We think Dynamic Product Ads (DPA) can start contributing to…

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September 15, 2025

Take rate trends and DSP competition

By Vasily Karasyov

This year, bears cite the news of AMZN DSP push and its reportedly “aggressive pricing” as evidence that take rate compression, which they have long predicted, will occur. In this note we show that (i)…

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September 2, 2025

One more Platform revenue growth driver to keep in mind

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we take a closer look at a potential driver of Platform revenue growth that currently seems overshadowed by ROKU’s integration with DSPs. We believe that video advertising on the home screen, now…

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