All Reports


February 16, 2025

Updating estimates following Q4 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are raising our 12 month price target to $620 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q1 FY25: we are modeling Advertising (Software Platform) revenue of $1,050m and Adjusted Ebitda of $819m, Apps…

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February 15, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q4 FY24 report. We are also raising our price target to $244 to reflect revised estimates. We currently expect RDDT to report the following results: Q1 FY25: Average Daily Uniques…

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February 15, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 FY24 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY25 We expect Platform revenue of $876m and gross profit of $463m, Devices revenue of $127m and gross profit…

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February 13, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A long-expected good quarter with the results and guidance supporting the bull thesis. The Platform segment gross margin of 54.1% hints at another ASC 606 adjustment. ROKU provides guidance for full FY2025 for revenue above…

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February 12, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another beat and raise. We would like to highlight that the earnings materials identify connected TV as an area of “significant potential” which APP is currently “exploring”. This may become the next frontier in FY25…

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February 12, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Disappointing results and guidance, probably the worst combination in years. The CEO’s message in the press release is different this quarter and calls out a reorganization in December. We expect the call to be different,…

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February 6, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q3 FY25 report. We maintain Neutral rating and adjust our price target to $36 to reflect the updated estimates and the prevailing valuation multiple. Q4 FY25: We expect subscription revenue…

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February 5, 2025

Updating estimates following Q4 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q4 FY24 results. We are modestly lowering our price target to $55 and maintain Neutral rating. Our Q1 FY25 estimates are: 11,000K digital-only subs at quarter end Digital-only subscription…

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February 5, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Generally in-line Q4 results support our argument that operating trends are stable with only minor surprises in some quarters. This, in our view, makes it difficult, for a convincing longer term bull or bear case…

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February 3, 2025

Estimates update ahead of Q4 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

Below are our estimates for Q4 FY24, Q1 and full year FY25. Q4 FY24: We are modeling Measurement revenue of $68m, up 13% Y/Y, Activation revenue of $113m which implies 14% growth v. last year; our…

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February 2, 2025

From limited visibility to high expectations

By Vasily Karasyov

The current valuation means, in our view, that the market is giving RDDT credit for growth opportunities and execution upfront. This means that if RDDT delivers on expectations in the course of FY25, the current…

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January 20, 2025

Trying this one more time

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view ROKU’s business performance and the stock price diverged last year. We believe that this year, ROKU is even better positioned to take advantage of industry-wide tailwinds. Additionally, FY24 highlighted the durability of…

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January 16, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q3 FY25 report. Q3 FY25: We expect subscription revenue of $144m, marketplace & other revenue of $48m and total company revenue of $191m. We are modeling adjusted gross profit…

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January 12, 2025

FY25 should be more straightforward than it looks

By Vasily Karasyov

The unveiling of the Ventura TV OS and, to lesser degree the announcement of the partnership with Spotify added dimensions to the TTD story that are unlikely to matter for the businesses performance in FY25,…

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December 16, 2024

2025 should be even more interesting for connected TV

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our market estimates for connected TV advertising spend for 2024 and 2025. We believe that despite a strong political cycle setting up a somewhat more difficult comp, we should see strong growth…

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