All Reports


November 8, 2023

The story needs a tie breaker

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q3 results and the guidance for Q4 illustrate well our thesis that neither bull nor bear case is likely to emerge as long as the current operating trends continue. On the positive…

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November 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Digital-only subs generally in-line with what we modeled, digital advertising revenue on the high end of the guidance and operating costs as expected. Digital-only ARPU up Q/Q 1.4% which what bulls want to see. Guidance…

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November 2, 2023

Updating estimates following Q3 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q3 results and Q4 guidance. We are adjusting our price target to $88 and Maintain Neutral rating. Our revised forecast is: Q4 FY23: We expect Platform revenue of $807m…

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November 1, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat was expected, Adjusted Ebitda guide for Q4 is probably the biggest surprise. A couple of things stand out in the Letter to Shareholders, in our view. The language about advertising trends is getting…

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October 26, 2023

Updating estimates ahead of Q3 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to incorporate the preannouncement issued on September 6th. We are also adjusting our price target to $63 to reflect the recent EV/Gross Profit multiple compression. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

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October 9, 2023

Almost time for another proof point, reiterate Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q3 results will highlight strengthening revenue trends at the Software Platform segment driven by AXON upgrade and easier comps for the key metrics, as we show below. We continue to believe that the…

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September 27, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates ahead of Q2FY24 report. We are raising our price target to $28 to reflect the recent prevailing trading EV/Sales multiple. Q2 FY24: We expect subscription revenue of $124m, marketplace &…

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September 26, 2023

BUY; the recent bear case should be put to rest soon

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the deterioration in sentiment around DV since the company reported Q2 (EV/FY24 Adjusted Ebitda contracted by one third) created a buying opportunity. We argue today that the bear case which emerged after…

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September 19, 2023

Updating estimates, maintaining Neutral rating

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q2 results and the new guidance. We are lowering our twelve month price target to $8.50 due to lower estimates and the target EV/Adjusted Ebitda multiple. For Q3…

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September 18, 2023

Initiating coverage

By Vasily Karasyov

We are initiating coverage of U at the time when the company is undergoing a business model transformation following the acquisition of IS in November last year. In our view, for the stock to work…

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August 13, 2023

This valuation is unsustainable, the stock will re-rate; PT to $50

By Vasily Karasyov

If, as we expect, AXON 2 continues to drive revenue growth acceleration in the coming quarters, the current valuation multiple of 11x EV/FY24E Adjusted Ebitda will have to expand, in our view. The most likely…

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August 10, 2023

So much for disintermediation

By Vasily Karasyov

We see the following main take aways from Q2 results and the management’s commentary: (i) the business is going well across the board, (ii) the company’s competitive position in the programmatic value chain is getting…

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August 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe the the guidance for Q3 revenue implies revenue ex-political growth acceleration to 25% from 23%. AS was the case in Q1, the guide may seem a touch more conservative than the Street is…

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August 9, 2023

Updating estimates following Q2 FY23 results

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q2 results and the guidance for Q3. We are lowering our price target to $7 and maintain Neutral rating. Q3 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.0m, Device segment revenue…

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August 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Device shipments and financials in line with expectations, Platform+ ahead but strength in advertising was telegraphed by the management during the quarter plus ROKU results were a decent read-through. Guidance looks soft but may reflect…

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