The Trade Desk, Inc.

We think that the main takeaway from TTD’s Q4 results is that the October air pocket was an isolated event with no impact on the growth in FY24. We expect bears’ arguments now to center…

Better than usual beat and guidance show the soft October patch is behind us now. The question is how much upside to FY24 estimates. We continue to believe that as we go through the year…

In this note we argue that the bear case centered around the negative impact the introduction of Prime Video advertising will have on TTD’s revenue growth trajectory is based on what we see as low…

In this note we show that, based on what we see as fairly conservative assumptions, shopper marketing should become a legitimate contributor to growth next year. We estimate it will account for 8.6% of total…

We have seen the TTD story go through rough periods before and all of them proved to be relatively short lived. The most recent industry-wide brand advertising spending softness which impacted TTD revenue growth occurred…

A very unusual weak guide for revenue of “at least $580m” in Q4 which is 5% below the consensus. We will be looking for a detailed explanation on the call for this black swan-level event….

We see the following main take aways from Q2 results and the management’s commentary: (i) the business is going well across the board, (ii) the company’s competitive position in the programmatic value chain is getting…

We believe the the guidance for Q3 revenue implies revenue ex-political growth acceleration to 25% from 23%. AS was the case in Q1, the guide may seem a touch more conservative than the Street is…

Time will tell if the guidance for Q2 means moderating operating trends or imply incremental room for upside – we think the latter will prove to be true. Looking past Q2, we expect the contribution…

Expectations were high heading into the print and the results prove they weren’t wrong. The revenue guidance is 4% above our estimates but 1% above the consensus which may seem like a disappointment for TTD….

We see shopper marketing as the next major growth driver for TTD. Our analysis shows that the company’s partnership with WMT launched in Q1 FY22 is already contributing to gross billings and will increase in…

Q1 guidance once again shows that (i) TTD is operating and gaining share in the pocket of the connected TV market that has decoupled from the direct sold ad spend some time ago and continues…

Q4 revenue are softish by TTD standards but guidance for Q4 revenue is much better than we expected and ahead of the consensus. Most likely explanation, in our view, is strength in connected TV as…

We believe the current consensus expectations for Q1 revenue may prove to be too optimistic. As we explain below, our reading of the signals from the company and the industry since the Q3 report suggest…