The Trade Desk, Inc.


September 18, 2024

The size and potential of shopper marketing is still not fully understood

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that the current revenue contribution as well as the growth potential of TTD’s shopper marketing business is still not fully understood at this point. We estimate that shopper marketing is on track to…

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August 9, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating estimates following Q2 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. We are now modeling Q3 revenue of $618m and Adjusted Ebitda of $248m. We expect full FY24 revenue of $2,432m and…

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August 8, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The question now is how much upside there is to Q3 and Q4 estimates and what will Fy25 look like as get get closer to it. Q2 results and guide for Q3 once again show…

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May 10, 2024

Updating estimates following Q1 FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating estimates following Q1 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. We are now modeling Q2 revenue of $575m and Adjusted Ebitda of $224m. We expect full FY24 revenue of $2,391m and…

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May 8, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The top line beat greater than usual. The guidance is a touch lighter but we think the Street will just see as just that much more beatable. After the 3p cookies deprecation timetable shift, the…

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February 19, 2024

Back to smoother sailing

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the main takeaway from TTD’s Q4 results is that the October air pocket was an isolated event with no impact on the growth in FY24. We expect bears’ arguments now to center…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Better than usual beat and guidance show the soft October patch is behind us now. The question is how much upside to FY24 estimates. We continue to believe that as we go through the year…

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February 4, 2024

So, about Prime Video ads and revenue growth…

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we argue that the bear case centered around the negative impact the introduction of Prime Video advertising will have on TTD’s revenue growth trajectory is based on what we see as low…

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December 3, 2023

To materiality and beyond! Shopper marketing revenue growth to accelerate in FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we show that, based on what we see as fairly conservative assumptions, shopper marketing should become a legitimate contributor to growth next year. We estimate it will account for 8.6% of total…

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November 12, 2023

December ’22 but in October ’23

By Vasily Karasyov

We have seen the TTD story go through rough periods before and all of them proved to be relatively short lived. The most recent industry-wide brand advertising spending softness which impacted TTD revenue growth occurred…

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November 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A very unusual weak guide for revenue of “at least $580m” in Q4 which is 5% below the consensus. We will be looking for a detailed explanation on the call for this black swan-level event….

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August 10, 2023

So much for disintermediation

By Vasily Karasyov

We see the following main take aways from Q2 results and the management’s commentary: (i) the business is going well across the board, (ii) the company’s competitive position in the programmatic value chain is getting…

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August 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe the the guidance for Q3 revenue implies revenue ex-political growth acceleration to 25% from 23%. AS was the case in Q1, the guide may seem a touch more conservative than the Street is…

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May 11, 2023

Shopper marketing rising

By Vasily Karasyov

Time will tell if the guidance for Q2 means moderating operating trends or imply incremental room for upside – we think the latter will prove to be true. Looking past Q2, we expect the contribution…

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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Expectations were high heading into the print and the results prove they weren’t wrong. The revenue guidance is 4% above our estimates but 1% above the consensus which may seem like a disappointment for TTD….

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