All Reports


March 25, 2025

The recovery math and optics

By Vasily Karasyov

We view FY25 as a pivotal year for U. A successful rollout of Unity Vector throughout the year could drive accelerated top-line growth, expand Adjusted EBITDA margins, and trigger a stock re-rating. As the Street…

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March 18, 2025

Tweaking EPS estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimate of stock-based compensation for Q1 to reflect the management’s comments. As a result, our GAAP EPS estimates for Q1 and FY25 move lower while the rest of the estimates remain…

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March 18, 2025

Updating price target

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our price target to $28 to reflect the updated estimates and the prevailing valuation multiple. Our current expectations are: Q4 FY25: We expect subscription revenue of $140m, marketplace & other revenue of $46m…

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March 16, 2025

AMZN DSP v. TTD: the facts and estimates you may want to know

By Vasily Karasyov

One of the bear arguments that emerged after TTD missed Q4 was the impact of AMZN’s DSP. While the argument looks convincing at first glance, we believe it’s not so strong if one looks closer…

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March 2, 2025

Throwing in the towel and downgrading, things can get worse

By Vasily Karasyov

We are downgrading DV shares to neutral today and lowering our twelve-month price target to $14. We acknowledge that this rating change is belated; it would have been more helpful a year ago before the…

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March 1, 2025

Tweaking quarterly revenue allocation

By Vasily Karasyov

Our Q1 and full FY25 estimates remain unchanged. We are tweaking the timing of revenue for Q2, Q3 and Q4. We are modeling the following: Q1 revenue of $575m, Adjusted Ebitda of $145m and adjusted…

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February 27, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another quarter with a really bad combination of a miss, soft guidance below already lowered expectations and an announced acquisition which is likely to fuel the “buying growth” argument. Hard to think of what the…

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February 24, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results. We are raising our price target to $29 and maintain Neutral rating. We now expect the following results: Q1 FY25: We are modeling Create Solutions revenue of…

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February 20, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 results ahead of expectations but the guide for Q1 is light. Assuming flat Q/Q Grow revenue, the implied shortfall v. our model is in the Create segment. We will be looking for more details…

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February 18, 2025

Updating estimates following Q4 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report and adjusting our price target to $121 which is based on 35x EV/FY27E Adjusted Ebitda. We are now modeling Q1 revenue of $575m, Adjusted Ebitda of $145m…

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February 16, 2025

Updating estimates following Q4 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are raising our 12 month price target to $620 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q1 FY25: we are modeling Advertising (Software Platform) revenue of $1,050m and Adjusted Ebitda of $819m, Apps…

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February 15, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q4 FY24 report. We are also raising our price target to $244 to reflect revised estimates. We currently expect RDDT to report the following results: Q1 FY25: Average Daily Uniques…

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February 15, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 FY24 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY25 We expect Platform revenue of $876m and gross profit of $463m, Devices revenue of $127m and gross profit…

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February 13, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A long-expected good quarter with the results and guidance supporting the bull thesis. The Platform segment gross margin of 54.1% hints at another ASC 606 adjustment. ROKU provides guidance for full FY2025 for revenue above…

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February 12, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another beat and raise. We would like to highlight that the earnings materials identify connected TV as an area of “significant potential” which APP is currently “exploring”. This may become the next frontier in FY25…

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