All Reports


March 25, 2024

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our forecast of digital-only subscribers to 9,899K at the end of Q1 and 10,252K at the end of FY24. As a result, our estimate of Digital-only Subscription Revenue for FY24 moves to…

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March 24, 2024

News from DIS support ROKU bull case; a couple of points on FY24;

By Vasily Karasyov

Our Buy thesis is based on our belief that the estimates are beatable at this point and the stock price will go up after beat and raise quarters. The bear arguments that have weighed on…

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March 17, 2024

This valuation looks extreme

By Vasily Karasyov

We continue to believe that APP is on the way to an eventual re-rating given the expected three-year Adjusted Ebitda CAGR of 25%, improving mobile gaming ad spending trends, and strengthening competitive position. In this…

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March 1, 2024

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q4 report, our revised forecast is below. We are updating our price target to $13.50 and maintain Neutral rating. For Q1 FY24, we expect Connected TV revenue of $50m,…

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March 1, 2024

Things have changed, the thesis has to change, too

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view, FY23 showed that the Buy thesis based on expectations of smooth, steady growth not subject to overall ad spend fluctuations is no longer applicable. It appears that the evolution of DV’s business…

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February 28, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

In-line results with a weak Q1 guide. Seasonality implied by the guidance looks different than what the management talked about on the Q3 call. Pricing was up Y/Y in Q4. Commentary on the call will…

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February 27, 2024

Pros and cons and waiting

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe there are two main takeaways from the Q4 report. First, it’s safe to assume now that the bias to the guidance and estimates is to the upside. There may be room for improved…

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February 22, 2024

Updating estimates following Q4 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $722m and gross profit of $376m, Devices revenue of $129m and gross profit of…

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February 19, 2024

Back to smoother sailing

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the main takeaway from TTD’s Q4 results is that the October air pocket was an isolated event with no impact on the growth in FY24. We expect bears’ arguments now to center…

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February 19, 2024

The closer you look, the better it is

By Vasily Karasyov

Bulls and bears are asking the same question: how sustainable is the revenue growth in the Software Platform segment? We argued before that it is more durable than it may look and Q4 report delivered…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The beat is not as big as the Street got used to although the guide is a little more optimistic than in recent quarters… It would be helpful to hear on the call if video…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Better than usual beat and guidance show the soft October patch is behind us now. The question is how much upside to FY24 estimates. We continue to believe that as we go through the year…

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February 14, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Both segments’ results ahead of expectations, Q1 FY24 guidance is also better than the consensus expectations. A couple of things to point out: (i) The Shareholder Letter mentions Y/Y growth in the mobile app advertising…

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February 13, 2024

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates ahead of the company’s Q4 report. Our full FY24 forecast, rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $700m and gross profit of $364m, Player…

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February 11, 2024

Back in the “show me” territory

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that for the stock to work from here RAMP will have to show a sustained acceleration in organic revenue growth as well as the benefits of the acquisition of Habu. The company has…

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