AppLovin Corp.
March 17, 2024
We continue to believe that APP is on the way to an eventual re-rating given the expected three-year Adjusted Ebitda CAGR of 25%, improving mobile gaming ad spending trends, and strengthening competitive position. In this…
February 19, 2024
Bulls and bears are asking the same question: how sustainable is the revenue growth in the Software Platform segment? We argued before that it is more durable than it may look and Q4 report delivered…
February 14, 2024
Both segments’ results ahead of expectations, Q1 FY24 guidance is also better than the consensus expectations. A couple of things to point out: (i) The Shareholder Letter mentions Y/Y growth in the mobile app advertising…
December 18, 2023
Our analysis of the key metrics trajectory in Q3, the first full quarter of AXON 2, gives us incremental conviction in sustainability of Software Platform revenue growth. As we show below, Q/Q progression of installs…
November 9, 2023
In our view, there are two main takeaways form Q3 results. First, there is little doubt that Q4 guidance is beatable. Second, the main question is by how much and what does it mean for…
November 8, 2023
The Software Platform delivered a blowout quarter, the guide seems to imply further acceleration in Y/Y revenue growth to >80% in Q4. This is the first full quarter of AXON 2 and the segment added…
October 9, 2023
We think that Q3 results will highlight strengthening revenue trends at the Software Platform segment driven by AXON upgrade and easier comps for the key metrics, as we show below. We continue to believe that the…
August 13, 2023
If, as we expect, AXON 2 continues to drive revenue growth acceleration in the coming quarters, the current valuation multiple of 11x EV/FY24E Adjusted Ebitda will have to expand, in our view. The most likely…
June 24, 2023
In our view, APP stock still offers a relatively inexpensive valuation with an option on Software Platform revenue growth acceleration which should lead to upward estimates revisions and a re-rating. For our thesis to play…
May 12, 2023
We continue to think that APP offers a combination of a still cheap valuation, attractive Ebitda to FCF conversion profile, more headroom for a re-rating and optionality for top line growth reacceleration due to industry-wide…
April 2, 2023
We believe that the company’s decision to shift the focus to reporting installs growth and revenue per install growth and away from metrics that are more complex and less applicable to revenue modeling is a…
February 9, 2023
Going into Q4 earnings we argued that If the report confirms that the management’s comments on Q3 were correct and there is no further deterioration in Software Platform top line trends, a new bull case,…
February 8, 2023
We see the results, guidance for Q1 and the commentary (no further deterioration in the mobile app market) in the letter to shareholders as positive for the stock. We believe that for a new bull…
January 30, 2023
We continue to believe that the complexity of the business model is a hurdle the APP story needs to clear for the stock to work in the long run. That said, the Street was willing…