All Reports


May 12, 2023

THE green shoot; reiterate BUY

By Vasily Karasyov

We continue to think that APP offers a combination of a still cheap valuation, attractive Ebitda to FCF conversion profile, more headroom for a re-rating and optionality for top line growth reacceleration due to industry-wide…

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May 11, 2023

Shopper marketing rising

By Vasily Karasyov

Time will tell if the guidance for Q2 means moderating operating trends or imply incremental room for upside – we think the latter will prove to be true. Looking past Q2, we expect the contribution…

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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another solid quarter from DV. We expect conviction in estimates to continue building throughout the year, the forecast and guidance look beatable at this point, and comps get easier in Q3 and Q4. Activation revenue…

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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Expectations were high heading into the print and the results prove they weren’t wrong. The revenue guidance is 4% above our estimates but 1% above the consensus which may seem like a disappointment for TTD….

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May 10, 2023

Model update following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Our estimates for Q2 FY23 are: 9,226K digital-only subs at quarter end Digital-only subscription revenue of $271m Total subscription revenue of…

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May 10, 2023

Model update following Q1 Fy23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Q2 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.0m, Device segment revenue of $253m and gross profit of $0m, Platform+ revenue of $136m,…

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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Worse than expected digital advertising revenue and continued Y/Y decline in Q2 is where bears will probably focus today. On the bright side, digital-only subs net adds seem to be run-rating at around 200K a…

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May 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

When the company gave guidance for Q1 in the last earnings report it was seen as soft but it’s paying off now. Platform+ better than expected with Device results light. Deceleration in advertising revenue growth…

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April 28, 2023

Updating estimates following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. We are trimming our price target to $62.50 and maintain Neutral rating. Q2 FY23: We expect Platform revenue of $666m and…

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April 27, 2023

Updating estimates ahead of Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q1 report. Our revised12 month price target of 440 is based on 16x EV/FY25 Adjusted Ebitda; we maintain Neutral rating. Our estimates for Q1 FY23 are: 9,053 digital-only…

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April 26, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat across the board and revenue guide in line with the consensus unlike what we saw in previous quarters. A couple of things stand out. First, assuming Device revenue seasonality in line with last…

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April 12, 2023

This is what the WMT partnership brings in

By Vasily Karasyov

We see shopper marketing as the next major growth driver for TTD. Our analysis shows that the company’s partnership with WMT launched in Q1 FY22 is already contributing to gross billings and will increase in…

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April 2, 2023

Metrics may look challenging but revenue should be fine

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that the company’s decision to shift the focus to reporting installs growth and revenue per install growth and away from metrics that are more complex and less applicable to revenue modeling is a…

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March 24, 2023

The Roku Channel matters a lot now and will matter more and more

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis shows that The Roku Channel’s importance in driving video advertising revenue growth will only increase with time as ROKU’s access to third party inventory sources becomes more limited. We also believe that this…

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March 14, 2023

An inconvenient nuance of programmatic connected TV

By Vasily Karasyov

As macro headwinds built throughout last year programmatic connected TV growth rates remained constant in Q3 and Q4 while pressure on the rest of the connected TV advertising spending kept increasing. As a result, connected…

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