All Reports


February 15, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 revenue are softish by TTD standards but guidance for Q4 revenue is much better than we expected and ahead of the consensus. Most likely explanation, in our view, is strength in connected TV as…

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February 9, 2023

It was actually better than it looked

By Vasily Karasyov

Going into Q4 earnings we argued that If the report confirms that the management’s comments on Q3 were correct and there is no further deterioration in Software Platform top line trends, a new bull case,…

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February 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We see the results, guidance for Q1 and the commentary (no further deterioration in the mobile app market) in the letter to shareholders as positive for the stock. We believe that for a new bull…

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February 8, 2023

A usual quarter but with a bearish twist this time

By Vasily Karasyov

This would have been a usual RAMP quarter with in line results followed by in line guidance for the next quarter if not for the cautious commentary on the likely revenue trajectory in FY24. In…

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February 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 Adjusted Oibda slightly ahead, guidance for Q1 in line when adjusted for the timing of the event in Saudi Arabia, guidance for the full FY23 better than our model by 3% at mid point….

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February 8, 2023

A meeting with the CEO and CFO on February 22nd

By Vasily Karasyov

Cannonball Research is hosting an in-person Group Meeting with New York Times (NYT) on Wednesday, February 22nd in New York. Participating Management: Meredith Kopit Levien – President & CEO, Roland Caputo – EVP & CFO,…

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February 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Financial metrics came in better than expected across the board, but total digital-only subs were below our expectations. We see the results as solid. Bears were most probably looking for a miss in digital advertising…

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February 7, 2023

Solid quarters and cautious outlook will remain the pattern for now

By Vasily Karasyov

We expect Q4 report to be similar to what we saw in Q3. In our view, ROKU is likely to post Platform revenue and gross profit in line or slightly ahead of expectations and will…

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February 4, 2023

The consensus may be misreading the signals about Q1

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe the current consensus expectations for Q1 revenue may prove to be too optimistic. As we explain below, our reading of the signals from the company and the industry since the Q3 report suggest…

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January 30, 2023

An NDR with the CEO and CFO

By Vasily Karasyov

Cannonball Research is hosting a Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow with Magnite Inc. (MGNI) on Thursday, February 23rd Participating Management: Michael Barrett – President & CEO, David Day – CFO,  Nick Kormeluk – SVP, IR & Global…

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January 30, 2023

Flat will need to be the new up for a bull case to take hold

By Vasily Karasyov

We continue to believe that the complexity of the business model is a hurdle the APP story needs to clear for the stock to work in the long run. That said, the Street was willing…

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January 23, 2023

A meeting with the CEO and CFO on February 22nd

By Vasily Karasyov

Cannonball Research is hosting an in-person Group Meeting with New York Times (NYT) on Wednesday, February 22nd in New York. Participating Management: Meredith Kopit Levien – President & CEO, Roland Caputo – EVP & CFO,…

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January 13, 2023

One more variable to worry about… trimming FY23 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We would like to highlight a potential slowdown in M&E revenue growth as another variable worth watching. The drivers include shrinking room for monetization gains, a deceleration in SmartCast hours growth and spending rationalization at…

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January 6, 2023

A couple of things to point out here

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that for the the bull case to play out and WWE to get sold, the TV rights renegotiations will have to be completed first. Their outcome will determine the timing of the announcement…

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January 4, 2023

This one is easier than others

By Vasily Karasyov

Based on our recent conversation with industry sources we believe that digital advertising trends played out in Q4 generally in line with what the companies in our coverage universe expected when they reported Q3: no…

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