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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Expectations were high heading into the print and the results prove they weren’t wrong. The revenue guidance is 4% above our estimates but 1% above the consensus which may seem like a disappointment for TTD….

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May 10, 2023

Model update following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Our estimates for Q2 FY23 are: 9,226K digital-only subs at quarter end Digital-only subscription revenue of $271m Total subscription revenue of…

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May 10, 2023

Model update following Q1 Fy23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Q2 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.0m, Device segment revenue of $253m and gross profit of $0m, Platform+ revenue of $136m,…

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May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Worse than expected digital advertising revenue and continued Y/Y decline in Q2 is where bears will probably focus today. On the bright side, digital-only subs net adds seem to be run-rating at around 200K a…

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May 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

When the company gave guidance for Q1 in the last earnings report it was seen as soft but it’s paying off now. Platform+ better than expected with Device results light. Deceleration in advertising revenue growth…

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April 28, 2023

Updating estimates following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. We are trimming our price target to $62.50 and maintain Neutral rating. Q2 FY23: We expect Platform revenue of $666m and…

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April 27, 2023

Updating estimates ahead of Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q1 report. Our revised12 month price target of 440 is based on 16x EV/FY25 Adjusted Ebitda; we maintain Neutral rating. Our estimates for Q1 FY23 are: 9,053 digital-only…

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April 26, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat across the board and revenue guide in line with the consensus unlike what we saw in previous quarters. A couple of things stand out. First, assuming Device revenue seasonality in line with last…

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March 1, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 results ahead of expectations, guidance for Q1 and full FY23 (!) in line with the consensus but light compared to our Street-high forecast. Although not the usual beat-and-raise, we think the stock should get…

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March 1, 2023

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates to reflect Q4 FY22 results. Our Neutral rating and price target of $9 remain unchanged. Q1 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.1m, Device segment revenue of $235m and gross profit…

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February 28, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 results in the all important Platform+ segment are below expectations so is the guidance for Q1. One possible explanation for the soft guide is that VZIO is switching to the strategy ROKU deployed in…

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February 27, 2023

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results and the guidance for Q1. For Q1 FY23, we expect Connected TV revenue of $44m, Desktop revenue of $27m and Mobile revenue of $40m. We expect…

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February 17, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results and the guidance for Q1. We are raising our price target to $79 to reflect recent EV/Gross Profit recovery. Our updated estimates are: Q1 FY23: We expect…

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February 15, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

As expected, a replay of Q3 with a strong beat and cautions/conservative guidance and commentary on Q1 revenue trends. The shareholder letter calls out an improvement is some advertising verticals so far this year while…

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February 15, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 revenue are softish by TTD standards but guidance for Q4 revenue is much better than we expected and ahead of the consensus. Most likely explanation, in our view, is strength in connected TV as…

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