Uncategorized


November 1, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat was expected, Adjusted Ebitda guide for Q4 is probably the biggest surprise. A couple of things stand out in the Letter to Shareholders, in our view. The language about advertising trends is getting…

Read More >>

October 26, 2023

Updating estimates ahead of Q3 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to incorporate the preannouncement issued on September 6th. We are also adjusting our price target to $63 to reflect the recent EV/Gross Profit multiple compression. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

Read More >>

September 27, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates ahead of Q2FY24 report. We are raising our price target to $28 to reflect the recent prevailing trading EV/Sales multiple. Q2 FY24: We expect subscription revenue of $124m, marketplace &…

Read More >>

September 19, 2023

Updating estimates, maintaining Neutral rating

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q2 results and the new guidance. We are lowering our twelve month price target to $8.50 due to lower estimates and the target EV/Adjusted Ebitda multiple. For Q3…

Read More >>

August 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe the the guidance for Q3 revenue implies revenue ex-political growth acceleration to 25% from 23%. AS was the case in Q1, the guide may seem a touch more conservative than the Street is…

Read More >>

August 9, 2023

Updating estimates following Q2 FY23 results

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q2 results and the guidance for Q3. We are lowering our price target to $7 and maintain Neutral rating. Q3 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.0m, Device segment revenue…

Read More >>

August 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Device shipments and financials in line with expectations, Platform+ ahead but strength in advertising was telegraphed by the management during the quarter plus ROKU results were a decent read-through. Guidance looks soft but may reflect…

Read More >>

August 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Digital-only subs only slightly worse than expected but ad revenue and Ebitda well ahead, digital-only ARPU up Q/Q and Y/Y as expected plus a solid guidance for Q3. Looks like the stock should get credit…

Read More >>

July 31, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Total revenue is only ~$133m ahead of our estimate which is a smaller beat than usual with Activation revenue ahead nicely but Measurement revenue softer than expected. Adjusted Ebitda is better. Full year guidance unchanged….

Read More >>

July 28, 2023

Updating estimates post Q2 FY23

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q2 results. We are raising our price target to $94 to reflect updated estimates and the current EV/Gross Profit multiple and maintain Neutral rating. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

Read More >>

July 27, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another beat in the Platform segment. It seems that the forward commentary in the Shareholder Letter is a touch more optimistic this quarter: in addition to the now usual language about the macro uncertainty it…

Read More >>

July 6, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates ahead of Q1 FY24 report. Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates We expect subscription revenue of $120m, marketplace & other revenue of $27m and total company revenue of $147m. We are modeling…

Read More >>

May 24, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the results and the guidance for Q1 and full FY24 are better than feared following the management’s comments on the previous earnings call. The Marketplace revenue line which is levered to the…

Read More >>

May 15, 2023

Estimates update following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Our revised price target of $36 is based on the current EV/FY24 Adjusted Ebitda multiple of 23x applied to our FY25…

Read More >>

May 10, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another solid quarter from DV. We expect conviction in estimates to continue building throughout the year, the forecast and guidance look beatable at this point, and comps get easier in Q3 and Q4. Activation revenue…

Read More >>