Uncategorized


May 8, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A bigger than usual beat with an in-line guidance is the new normal. The stock probably wouldn’t get credit for a more aggressive outlook this earnings season. We think at this point the macro uncertainty…

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May 8, 2025

Updating estimates following

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q1 FY25 report. For Q2 FY25, we expect Connected TV revenue of $72m, Desktop revenue of $27m and Mobile revenue of $61m. We expect total revenue of $160m, Adjusted…

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May 8, 2025

Updating estimates following Q1 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results. Our price target and rating remain unchanged. We now expect the following results: Q2 FY25: We are modeling Create Solutions revenue of $143m, Grow Solutions revenue of…

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May 7, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another clean beat and raise. Quarters like this are ultimately the best defense against what we think will prove to be noise. The new format of earnings materials provide only financial information. We look forward…

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May 7, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q1 results ahead of expectations due to smaller than anticipated Q/Q revenue decline in Grow Solutions. The press release calls out “earlier than expected rollout of Unity Vector”. Estimates for FY25 were reset lower after…

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May 7, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Digital-only subscribers were ahead of expectations, with ARPU in line. The stock often trades based on digital advertising results and guidance, both of which surpassed our expectations this quarter, likely supporting the stock’s performance today….

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May 5, 2025

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q1 FY25 report. Our price target and rating remain unchanged. We currently expect RDDT to report the following results: Q2 FY25: Average Daily Uniques (DAUq) of 108m; $387m in advertising…

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May 2, 2025

Updating estimates following Q1 FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q1 FY25 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q2 FY25 We expect Platform revenue of $941m and gross profit of $479m, Devices revenue of $130m and gross profit…

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May 1, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q1 results in line, full FY25 for Platform revenue reaffirmed, some softness is now expected in the Devices segment due to the tariffs backdrop. We see the print as somewhat mixed with (i) no guide-down…

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March 18, 2025

Tweaking EPS estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimate of stock-based compensation for Q1 to reflect the management’s comments. As a result, our GAAP EPS estimates for Q1 and FY25 move lower while the rest of the estimates remain…

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March 18, 2025

Updating price target

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our price target to $28 to reflect the updated estimates and the prevailing valuation multiple. Our current expectations are: Q4 FY25: We expect subscription revenue of $140m, marketplace & other revenue of $46m…

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March 1, 2025

Tweaking quarterly revenue allocation

By Vasily Karasyov

Our Q1 and full FY25 estimates remain unchanged. We are tweaking the timing of revenue for Q2, Q3 and Q4. We are modeling the following: Q1 revenue of $575m, Adjusted Ebitda of $145m and adjusted…

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February 27, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another quarter with a really bad combination of a miss, soft guidance below already lowered expectations and an announced acquisition which is likely to fuel the “buying growth” argument. Hard to think of what the…

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February 24, 2025

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results. We are raising our price target to $29 and maintain Neutral rating. We now expect the following results: Q1 FY25: We are modeling Create Solutions revenue of…

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February 20, 2025

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Q4 results ahead of expectations but the guide for Q1 is light. Assuming flat Q/Q Grow revenue, the implied shortfall v. our model is in the Create segment. We will be looking for more details…

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