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April 5, 2024

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates. We are also raising our price target to $11.50 and maintain Neutral rating. We suspend the rest of our forward estimates as we currently expect the acquisition by WMT…

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March 25, 2024

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our forecast of digital-only subscribers to 9,899K at the end of Q1 and 10,252K at the end of FY24. As a result, our estimate of Digital-only Subscription Revenue for FY24 moves to…

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March 1, 2024

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q4 report, our revised forecast is below. We are updating our price target to $13.50 and maintain Neutral rating. For Q1 FY24, we expect Connected TV revenue of $50m,…

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February 28, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

In-line results with a weak Q1 guide. Seasonality implied by the guidance looks different than what the management talked about on the Q3 call. Pricing was up Y/Y in Q4. Commentary on the call will…

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February 22, 2024

Updating estimates following Q4 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $722m and gross profit of $376m, Devices revenue of $129m and gross profit of…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The beat is not as big as the Street got used to although the guide is a little more optimistic than in recent quarters… It would be helpful to hear on the call if video…

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February 15, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Better than usual beat and guidance show the soft October patch is behind us now. The question is how much upside to FY24 estimates. We continue to believe that as we go through the year…

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February 14, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Both segments’ results ahead of expectations, Q1 FY24 guidance is also better than the consensus expectations. A couple of things to point out: (i) The Shareholder Letter mentions Y/Y growth in the mobile app advertising…

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February 13, 2024

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates ahead of the company’s Q4 report. Our full FY24 forecast, rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $700m and gross profit of $364m, Player…

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February 7, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The quarter looks on the weaker side. Digital advertising revenue decline was a little below the low end of the guidance. Digital-only ARPU growth decelerated 90bps v. Q3 which is likely disappointing for the bulls….

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December 27, 2023

Updating estimates; introducing Q1 FY24 forecast

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q4 report, our revised forecast is as follows: For Q4 FY23, we expect Connected TV revenue of $62m, Desktop revenue of $30m and Mobile revenue of $69m. We…

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December 21, 2023

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We are modeling $48m in Measurement revenue, $84m in activation and $12m in Supply-side revenue. Our Adjusted Ebitda forecast is $39m…

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November 14, 2023

Updating model following Q3 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q3 results and the guidance for Q4. Q4 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.4m, Device segment revenue of $333m and gross profit of ($7m), Platform+ revenue of $166m, gross…

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November 13, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 report. Our Buy rating and price target of $44 remain unchanged. Our latest estimates are: Q4 FY23: We are modeling $61m in Measurement revenue, $99m in activation and…

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November 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A very unusual weak guide for revenue of “at least $580m” in Q4 which is 5% below the consensus. We will be looking for a detailed explanation on the call for this black swan-level event….

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