Company Notes


June 2, 2024

Upgrading to Buy; the sentiment bottomed, room for upside to estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are upgrading MGNI shares to Buy from Neutral and raising our 12 month price target to $17. We believe that the negative sentiment that weighed on the stock prior to the announcement of the…

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April 29, 2024

CEO & CFO Non-Deal Roadshow on May 9th

By Vasily Karasyov

Michael G. Barrett – President and CEO, David Day – CFO, Nick Kormeluk – SVP, IR. Please reply to this email to submit interest.

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April 17, 2024

CEO & CFO NDR on May 10th

By Vasily Karasyov

1×1 and small group virtual meetings with Mark Zagorsky, CEO; Nicola Allais, CFO; Tejal Engman, SVP, IR. Click to submit interest

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March 24, 2024

News from DIS support ROKU bull case; a couple of points on FY24;

By Vasily Karasyov

Our Buy thesis is based on our belief that the estimates are beatable at this point and the stock price will go up after beat and raise quarters. The bear arguments that have weighed on…

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March 17, 2024

This valuation looks extreme

By Vasily Karasyov

We continue to believe that APP is on the way to an eventual re-rating given the expected three-year Adjusted Ebitda CAGR of 25%, improving mobile gaming ad spending trends, and strengthening competitive position. In this…

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March 1, 2024

Things have changed, the thesis has to change, too

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view, FY23 showed that the Buy thesis based on expectations of smooth, steady growth not subject to overall ad spend fluctuations is no longer applicable. It appears that the evolution of DV’s business…

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February 27, 2024

Pros and cons and waiting

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe there are two main takeaways from the Q4 report. First, it’s safe to assume now that the bias to the guidance and estimates is to the upside. There may be room for improved…

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February 19, 2024

Back to smoother sailing

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the main takeaway from TTD’s Q4 results is that the October air pocket was an isolated event with no impact on the growth in FY24. We expect bears’ arguments now to center…

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February 19, 2024

The closer you look, the better it is

By Vasily Karasyov

Bulls and bears are asking the same question: how sustainable is the revenue growth in the Software Platform segment? We argued before that it is more durable than it may look and Q4 report delivered…

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February 11, 2024

Back in the “show me” territory

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that for the stock to work from here RAMP will have to show a sustained acceleration in organic revenue growth as well as the benefits of the acquisition of Habu. The company has…

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February 7, 2024

Looks like a new problem but we have seen it before

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q4 FY23 was the first quarter since NYT embarked on the business model transformation to digital when the news cycle proved to be a negative and instead of just helping drive digital…

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February 4, 2024

So, about Prime Video ads and revenue growth…

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we argue that the bear case centered around the negative impact the introduction of Prime Video advertising will have on TTD’s revenue growth trajectory is based on what we see as low…

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December 18, 2023

Growth is more durable than it looks; a deeper dive into the key metrics

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis of the key metrics trajectory in Q3, the first full quarter of AXON 2, gives us incremental conviction in sustainability of Software Platform revenue growth. As we show below, Q/Q progression of installs…

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December 3, 2023

To materiality and beyond! Shopper marketing revenue growth to accelerate in FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we show that, based on what we see as fairly conservative assumptions, shopper marketing should become a legitimate contributor to growth next year. We estimate it will account for 8.6% of total…

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November 26, 2023

Upgrading to Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We are upgrading ROKU shares to buy from Neutral as we now believe that room for upside to FY24 consensus forecast is enough to allow for more meaningful upward estimates revisions than we have seen…

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