Company Notes


October 9, 2023

Almost time for another proof point, reiterate Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q3 results will highlight strengthening revenue trends at the Software Platform segment driven by AXON upgrade and easier comps for the key metrics, as we show below. We continue to believe that the…

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September 26, 2023

BUY; the recent bear case should be put to rest soon

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the deterioration in sentiment around DV since the company reported Q2 (EV/FY24 Adjusted Ebitda contracted by one third) created a buying opportunity. We argue today that the bear case which emerged after…

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September 18, 2023

Initiating coverage

By Vasily Karasyov

We are initiating coverage of U at the time when the company is undergoing a business model transformation following the acquisition of IS in November last year. In our view, for the stock to work…

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August 13, 2023

This valuation is unsustainable, the stock will re-rate; PT to $50

By Vasily Karasyov

If, as we expect, AXON 2 continues to drive revenue growth acceleration in the coming quarters, the current valuation multiple of 11x EV/FY24E Adjusted Ebitda will have to expand, in our view. The most likely…

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August 10, 2023

So much for disintermediation

By Vasily Karasyov

We see the following main take aways from Q2 results and the management’s commentary: (i) the business is going well across the board, (ii) the company’s competitive position in the programmatic value chain is getting…

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August 8, 2023

Business going well but the stock could use a new bull case

By Vasily Karasyov

We don’t think that anyone doubts at this point that the company successfully transformed its business model to digital and that the digital-only subscribers goal is doable. The success of this transition was a bull…

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August 2, 2023

Not a view-changing event; reiterate BUY

By Vasily Karasyov

We think yesterday’s stock price reaction will prove to be a buying opportunity. In our view, the question after Q2 print is: was it a view-changing event? We don’t believe that an in-line quarter and…

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July 19, 2023

Revising assumptions for the remainder of FY23 and FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating the assumptions underlying our estimates for Q3 and Q4 to reflect the current advertising trends and the potential impact of the writers’ and actors’ strikes. As a result, our estimates for Platform…

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June 24, 2023

Here is some math that can be helpful; raising price target to $28

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view, APP stock still offers a relatively inexpensive valuation with an option on Software Platform revenue growth acceleration which should lead to upward estimates revisions and a re-rating. For our thesis to play…

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June 12, 2023

Framing expectations for programmatic revenue; a lesson from Hulu

By Vasily Karasyov

The Street is currently focused on sizing up potential incremental revenue resulting from ROKU opening its ad inventory to outside programmatic demand. As we discuss below, this decision is unlikely to contribute materially in the…

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June 5, 2023

In the “show me” territory now; downgrading to Neutral

By Vasily Karasyov

We are downgrading MGNI to Neutral as the stock is trading in line with our price target of $13.50. We believe the shares will remain range-bound within our time horizon of twelve months for two…

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May 12, 2023

THE green shoot; reiterate BUY

By Vasily Karasyov

We continue to think that APP offers a combination of a still cheap valuation, attractive Ebitda to FCF conversion profile, more headroom for a re-rating and optionality for top line growth reacceleration due to industry-wide…

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May 11, 2023

Shopper marketing rising

By Vasily Karasyov

Time will tell if the guidance for Q2 means moderating operating trends or imply incremental room for upside – we think the latter will prove to be true. Looking past Q2, we expect the contribution…

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April 12, 2023

This is what the WMT partnership brings in

By Vasily Karasyov

We see shopper marketing as the next major growth driver for TTD. Our analysis shows that the company’s partnership with WMT launched in Q1 FY22 is already contributing to gross billings and will increase in…

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April 2, 2023

Metrics may look challenging but revenue should be fine

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that the company’s decision to shift the focus to reporting installs growth and revenue per install growth and away from metrics that are more complex and less applicable to revenue modeling is a…

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