Company Notes


December 3, 2023

To materiality and beyond! Shopper marketing revenue growth to accelerate in FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we show that, based on what we see as fairly conservative assumptions, shopper marketing should become a legitimate contributor to growth next year. We estimate it will account for 8.6% of total…

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November 26, 2023

Upgrading to Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We are upgrading ROKU shares to buy from Neutral as we now believe that room for upside to FY24 consensus forecast is enough to allow for more meaningful upward estimates revisions than we have seen…

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November 12, 2023

December ’22 but in October ’23

By Vasily Karasyov

We have seen the TTD story go through rough periods before and all of them proved to be relatively short lived. The most recent industry-wide brand advertising spending softness which impacted TTD revenue growth occurred…

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November 9, 2023

Uncharted waters but in a good way

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view, there are two main takeaways form Q3 results. First, there is little doubt that Q4 guidance is beatable. Second, the main question is by how much and what does it mean for…

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November 8, 2023

The story needs a tie breaker

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q3 results and the guidance for Q4 illustrate well our thesis that neither bull nor bear case is likely to emerge as long as the current operating trends continue. On the positive…

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October 9, 2023

Almost time for another proof point, reiterate Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q3 results will highlight strengthening revenue trends at the Software Platform segment driven by AXON upgrade and easier comps for the key metrics, as we show below. We continue to believe that the…

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September 26, 2023

BUY; the recent bear case should be put to rest soon

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the deterioration in sentiment around DV since the company reported Q2 (EV/FY24 Adjusted Ebitda contracted by one third) created a buying opportunity. We argue today that the bear case which emerged after…

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September 18, 2023

Initiating coverage

By Vasily Karasyov

We are initiating coverage of U at the time when the company is undergoing a business model transformation following the acquisition of IS in November last year. In our view, for the stock to work…

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August 13, 2023

This valuation is unsustainable, the stock will re-rate; PT to $50

By Vasily Karasyov

If, as we expect, AXON 2 continues to drive revenue growth acceleration in the coming quarters, the current valuation multiple of 11x EV/FY24E Adjusted Ebitda will have to expand, in our view. The most likely…

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August 10, 2023

So much for disintermediation

By Vasily Karasyov

We see the following main take aways from Q2 results and the management’s commentary: (i) the business is going well across the board, (ii) the company’s competitive position in the programmatic value chain is getting…

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August 8, 2023

Business going well but the stock could use a new bull case

By Vasily Karasyov

We don’t think that anyone doubts at this point that the company successfully transformed its business model to digital and that the digital-only subscribers goal is doable. The success of this transition was a bull…

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August 2, 2023

Not a view-changing event; reiterate BUY

By Vasily Karasyov

We think yesterday’s stock price reaction will prove to be a buying opportunity. In our view, the question after Q2 print is: was it a view-changing event? We don’t believe that an in-line quarter and…

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July 19, 2023

Revising assumptions for the remainder of FY23 and FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating the assumptions underlying our estimates for Q3 and Q4 to reflect the current advertising trends and the potential impact of the writers’ and actors’ strikes. As a result, our estimates for Platform…

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June 24, 2023

Here is some math that can be helpful; raising price target to $28

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view, APP stock still offers a relatively inexpensive valuation with an option on Software Platform revenue growth acceleration which should lead to upward estimates revisions and a re-rating. For our thesis to play…

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June 12, 2023

Framing expectations for programmatic revenue; a lesson from Hulu

By Vasily Karasyov

The Street is currently focused on sizing up potential incremental revenue resulting from ROKU opening its ad inventory to outside programmatic demand. As we discuss below, this decision is unlikely to contribute materially in the…

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