All Reports


November 17, 2024

The push into e-commerce: why and how

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that FY25 will be an especially important year for the APP story. The launch of AXON 2 in FY23 and the resulting revenue ramp drove continued upward estimates revisions and a steady valuation…

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November 12, 2024

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q3 results. We are raising our price target to $21 and maintain Neutral rating. We now expect the following results: Q4 FY24: We are modeling Create Solutions revenue of…

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November 11, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2FY25 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q2 FY25 report. We maintain Neutral rating and adjust our price target to $28 to reflect the updated estimates and the prevailing valuation multiple. Q3 FY25: We expect subscription revenue…

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November 8, 2024

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q3 report, our revised forecast is below. Our price target and rating remain unchanged. For Q4 FY24, we expect Connected TV revenue of $76m, Desktop revenue of $30m and…

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November 8, 2024

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating estimates following Q3 report and raising price target to $142 to reflect high forward esitmates. We are now modeling Q4 revenue of $756m and Adjusted Ebitda of $363m. We expect FY25 revenue…

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November 8, 2024

Model update following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report. Q4 FY24: We are modeling Measurement revenue of $68m, up 13% Y/Y, Activation revenue of $113m which implies 14% growth v. last year; our forecast for Supply-side revenue…

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November 7, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The guide for Q4 is likely to be seen as disappointing today given the expectations which kept growing. We would point out, however, that the 5% beat implies that the business is firing on all…

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November 7, 2024

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are raising our 12 month price target to $290 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q4 FY24: we are modeling Software Platform revenue of $877m and Adjusted Ebitda of $667m, Apps revenue…

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November 6, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another very strong quarter. The shareholder letter highlights “technology enhancements” to AXON, we are guessing similar to the one that occurred in Q1 and drove a massive beat. An additional $2bn share repurchase authorization announced….

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November 4, 2024

Updating estimates following Q2 FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q3 FY24 results. Our price target and rating remain unchanged. Our estimates for Q4 FY24 are: 10,864K digital-only subs at quarter end Digital-only subscription revenue of $333m Total subscription…

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November 4, 2024

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We currently expect RDDT to report the following results: Full FY25: Advertising revenue of $1,454m, other revenue of $143m and total revenue of $1,597m. We are modeling Adjusted Ebitda of $397m. We expect GAAP diluted EPS…

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November 4, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view the results look solid relative to the guidance provided. Expectations may have gone up into the print as some expected a bigger boost due to the election. We think NYT’s business model…

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October 31, 2024

Updating estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 report. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q4 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $945m and gross profit of $500m, Devices revenue of $194m and gross profit of…

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October 30, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Lots of moving pieces against the backdrop of elevated expectations, we think the call will bring more clarity. The guidance for 14% Platform revenue growth in Q4 implies a ~1% deceleration v. Q3 but Q3…

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October 30, 2024

Updating estimates following Q3 FY24 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 FY24 report. We are raising out price target to $135 to reflect the updated estimates and the current valuation multiple. We currently expect RDDT to report the following…

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