The Trade Desk, Inc.

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report. We are adjusting our price target to $40 to reflect the updated estimates and the current valuation multiple. We are now modeling Q1 revenue of $678m, Adjusted…

We think that a slight beat in Q4 and a weak guide for Q1 will reinforce the bear case which has been weighing on the stock since Q4 FY24 print. In our view, irrespective of…

In this note, we analyze two solutions offered by TTD that we expect to grow in importance in FY26. The first one is OpenPath which, we estimate, adds around 150bps to TTD’s take rate on…

We are updating our estimates following Q3 report. We are now modeling Q4 revenue of $841m, Adjusted Ebitda of $375m and adjusted diluted EPS of$0.62. We expect FY26 revenue of $3,392m, Adjusted Ebitda of $1,381m…

Q3 looks like a quarter the Street was used to before Q4 FY24 print. In our view, earnings reports like this will ultimately lead to a re-rating. On the call we will be looking for…

This year, bears cite the news of AMZN DSP push and its reportedly “aggressive pricing” as evidence that take rate compression, which they have long predicted, will occur. In this note we show that (i)…

We are updating our estimates following Q2 report. We are lowering our price target to $70 to reflect the current EV/Adjusted Ebitda multiple. We are now modeling Q3 revenue of $717m, Adjusted Ebitda of $277m…

A challenging combination of high expectations at the end of the earnings season and the new CFO announcement. Looks like bulls will have to wait for Q3 results to see their case play out. We…

We are updating our estimates following Q1 report. We are now modeling Q2 revenue of $682m, Adjusted Ebitda of $259m and adjusted diluted EPS of$0.42. We expect FY25 revenue of $2,821m, Adjusted Ebitda of $1,113m…

A bigger than usual beat with an in-line guidance is the new normal. The stock probably wouldn’t get credit for a more aggressive outlook this earnings season. We think at this point the macro uncertainty…

Our Q1 and full FY25 estimates remain unchanged. We are tweaking the timing of revenue for Q2, Q3 and Q4. We are modeling the following: Q1 revenue of $575m, Adjusted Ebitda of $145m and adjusted…

We are updating our estimates following Q4 report and adjusting our price target to $121 which is based on 35x EV/FY27E Adjusted Ebitda. We are now modeling Q1 revenue of $575m, Adjusted Ebitda of $145m…

Disappointing results and guidance, probably the worst combination in years. The CEO’s message in the press release is different this quarter and calls out a reorganization in December. We expect the call to be different,…

The unveiling of the Ventura TV OS and, to lesser degree the announcement of the partnership with Spotify added dimensions to the TTD story that are unlikely to matter for the businesses performance in FY25,…

We are updating estimates following Q3 report and raising price target to $142 to reflect high forward esitmates. We are now modeling Q4 revenue of $756m and Adjusted Ebitda of $363m. We expect FY25 revenue…