Roku, Inc.


July 28, 2023

Updating estimates post Q2 FY23

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q2 results. We are raising our price target to $94 to reflect updated estimates and the current EV/Gross Profit multiple and maintain Neutral rating. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

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July 27, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another beat in the Platform segment. It seems that the forward commentary in the Shareholder Letter is a touch more optimistic this quarter: in addition to the now usual language about the macro uncertainty it…

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July 19, 2023

Revising assumptions for the remainder of FY23 and FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating the assumptions underlying our estimates for Q3 and Q4 to reflect the current advertising trends and the potential impact of the writers’ and actors’ strikes. As a result, our estimates for Platform…

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June 12, 2023

Framing expectations for programmatic revenue; a lesson from Hulu

By Vasily Karasyov

The Street is currently focused on sizing up potential incremental revenue resulting from ROKU opening its ad inventory to outside programmatic demand. As we discuss below, this decision is unlikely to contribute materially in the…

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April 28, 2023

Updating estimates following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. We are trimming our price target to $62.50 and maintain Neutral rating. Q2 FY23: We expect Platform revenue of $666m and…

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April 26, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A beat across the board and revenue guide in line with the consensus unlike what we saw in previous quarters. A couple of things stand out. First, assuming Device revenue seasonality in line with last…

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March 24, 2023

The Roku Channel matters a lot now and will matter more and more

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis shows that The Roku Channel’s importance in driving video advertising revenue growth will only increase with time as ROKU’s access to third party inventory sources becomes more limited. We also believe that this…

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February 17, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q4 results and the guidance for Q1. We are raising our price target to $79 to reflect recent EV/Gross Profit recovery. Our updated estimates are: Q1 FY23: We expect…

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February 15, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

As expected, a replay of Q3 with a strong beat and cautions/conservative guidance and commentary on Q1 revenue trends. The shareholder letter calls out an improvement is some advertising verticals so far this year while…

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February 7, 2023

Solid quarters and cautious outlook will remain the pattern for now

By Vasily Karasyov

We expect Q4 report to be similar to what we saw in Q3. In our view, ROKU is likely to post Platform revenue and gross profit in line or slightly ahead of expectations and will…

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December 7, 2022

Bulls and bears got M&E revenue wrong; reasons and implications for the future

By Vasily Karasyov

Media & Entertainment (M&E) revenue surprised both to the upside and downside in the last two years. In this note we argue that going forward, this revenue stream is likely to see a normalized rate…

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November 2, 2022

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

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October 21, 2022

A couple of thoughts ahead of Q3 report

By Vasily Karasyov

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