AppLovin Corp.

We think that FY25 will be an especially important year for the APP story. The launch of AXON 2 in FY23 and the resulting revenue ramp drove continued upward estimates revisions and a steady valuation…

We are raising our 12 month price target to $290 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q4 FY24: we are modeling Software Platform revenue of $877m and Adjusted Ebitda of $667m, Apps revenue…

Another very strong quarter. The shareholder letter highlights “technology enhancements” to AXON, we are guessing similar to the one that occurred in Q1 and drove a massive beat. An additional $2bn share repurchase authorization announced….

We are raising our 12 month price target to $107 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q3 FY24: we are modeling Software Platform revenue of $754m and Adjusted Ebitda of $558m, Apps revenue…

The beat is smaller than in previous quarters since AXON 2 launched but in line with the company’s message of Software Platform revenue growing in the mid-single digits Q/Q absent software improvements similar to the…

We are raising our 12 month price target to $107 and maintain Buy rating. Our updated estimates are: Q2 FY24: we are modeling Software Platform revenue of $699m and Adjusted Ebitda of $507m, Apps revenue…

The Software Platform delivered another blowout quarter, the guide seems to imply Y/Y revenue growth of at least 67% in Q2 (assuming constant Q/Q Apps revenue and margin and the mid point of the guide)…

We continue to believe that APP is on the way to an eventual re-rating given the expected three-year Adjusted Ebitda CAGR of 25%, improving mobile gaming ad spending trends, and strengthening competitive position. In this…

Bulls and bears are asking the same question: how sustainable is the revenue growth in the Software Platform segment? We argued before that it is more durable than it may look and Q4 report delivered…

Both segments’ results ahead of expectations, Q1 FY24 guidance is also better than the consensus expectations. A couple of things to point out: (i) The Shareholder Letter mentions Y/Y growth in the mobile app advertising…

Our analysis of the key metrics trajectory in Q3, the first full quarter of AXON 2, gives us incremental conviction in sustainability of Software Platform revenue growth. As we show below, Q/Q progression of installs…

In our view, there are two main takeaways form Q3 results. First, there is little doubt that Q4 guidance is beatable. Second, the main question is by how much and what does it mean for…

The Software Platform delivered a blowout quarter, the guide seems to imply further acceleration in Y/Y revenue growth to >80% in Q4. This is the first full quarter of AXON 2 and the segment added…

We think that Q3 results will highlight strengthening revenue trends at the Software Platform segment driven by AXON upgrade and easier comps for the key metrics, as we show below. We continue to believe that the…

If, as we expect, AXON 2 continues to drive revenue growth acceleration in the coming quarters, the current valuation multiple of 11x EV/FY24E Adjusted Ebitda will have to expand, in our view. The most likely…