All Reports


August 8, 2023

Business going well but the stock could use a new bull case

By Vasily Karasyov

We don’t think that anyone doubts at this point that the company successfully transformed its business model to digital and that the digital-only subscribers goal is doable. The success of this transition was a bull…

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August 8, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Digital-only subs only slightly worse than expected but ad revenue and Ebitda well ahead, digital-only ARPU up Q/Q and Y/Y as expected plus a solid guidance for Q3. Looks like the stock should get credit…

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August 2, 2023

Not a view-changing event; reiterate BUY

By Vasily Karasyov

We think yesterday’s stock price reaction will prove to be a buying opportunity. In our view, the question after Q2 print is: was it a view-changing event? We don’t believe that an in-line quarter and…

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July 31, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Total revenue is only ~$133m ahead of our estimate which is a smaller beat than usual with Activation revenue ahead nicely but Measurement revenue softer than expected. Adjusted Ebitda is better. Full year guidance unchanged….

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July 28, 2023

Updating estimates post Q2 FY23

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model following Q2 results. We are raising our price target to $94 to reflect updated estimates and the current EV/Gross Profit multiple and maintain Neutral rating. Our updated estimates are: Q3…

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July 27, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

Another beat in the Platform segment. It seems that the forward commentary in the Shareholder Letter is a touch more optimistic this quarter: in addition to the now usual language about the macro uncertainty it…

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July 19, 2023

Revising assumptions for the remainder of FY23 and FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating the assumptions underlying our estimates for Q3 and Q4 to reflect the current advertising trends and the potential impact of the writers’ and actors’ strikes. As a result, our estimates for Platform…

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July 6, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates ahead of Q1 FY24 report. Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates We expect subscription revenue of $120m, marketplace & other revenue of $27m and total company revenue of $147m. We are modeling…

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June 24, 2023

Here is some math that can be helpful; raising price target to $28

By Vasily Karasyov

In our view, APP stock still offers a relatively inexpensive valuation with an option on Software Platform revenue growth acceleration which should lead to upward estimates revisions and a re-rating. For our thesis to play…

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June 12, 2023

Framing expectations for programmatic revenue; a lesson from Hulu

By Vasily Karasyov

The Street is currently focused on sizing up potential incremental revenue resulting from ROKU opening its ad inventory to outside programmatic demand. As we discuss below, this decision is unlikely to contribute materially in the…

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June 5, 2023

In the “show me” territory now; downgrading to Neutral

By Vasily Karasyov

We are downgrading MGNI to Neutral as the stock is trading in line with our price target of $13.50. We believe the shares will remain range-bound within our time horizon of twelve months for two…

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May 24, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that the results and the guidance for Q1 and full FY24 are better than feared following the management’s comments on the previous earnings call. The Marketplace revenue line which is levered to the…

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May 15, 2023

Estimates update following Q1 FY23 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q1 results and the guidance for Q2. Our revised price target of $36 is based on the current EV/FY24 Adjusted Ebitda multiple of 23x applied to our FY25…

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May 12, 2023

THE green shoot; reiterate BUY

By Vasily Karasyov

We continue to think that APP offers a combination of a still cheap valuation, attractive Ebitda to FCF conversion profile, more headroom for a re-rating and optionality for top line growth reacceleration due to industry-wide…

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May 11, 2023

Shopper marketing rising

By Vasily Karasyov

Time will tell if the guidance for Q2 means moderating operating trends or imply incremental room for upside – we think the latter will prove to be true. Looking past Q2, we expect the contribution…

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