All Reports


February 13, 2024

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates ahead of the company’s Q4 report. Our full FY24 forecast, rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We expect Platform revenue of $700m and gross profit of $364m, Player…

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February 11, 2024

Back in the “show me” territory

By Vasily Karasyov

We believe that for the stock to work from here RAMP will have to show a sustained acceleration in organic revenue growth as well as the benefits of the acquisition of Habu. The company has…

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February 7, 2024

Looks like a new problem but we have seen it before

By Vasily Karasyov

We think that Q4 FY23 was the first quarter since NYT embarked on the business model transformation to digital when the news cycle proved to be a negative and instead of just helping drive digital…

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February 7, 2024

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

The quarter looks on the weaker side. Digital advertising revenue decline was a little below the low end of the guidance. Digital-only ARPU growth decelerated 90bps v. Q3 which is likely disappointing for the bulls….

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February 4, 2024

So, about Prime Video ads and revenue growth…

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we argue that the bear case centered around the negative impact the introduction of Prime Video advertising will have on TTD’s revenue growth trajectory is based on what we see as low…

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January 8, 2024

What M&E trends in FY23 tell us about FY24 and beyond

By Vasily Karasyov

With the strikes in Hollywood over, M&E may prove to be a driver of variance versus expectations in FY24. Both, bulls and bears have been wrong about the trajectory of this volatile revenue stream in…

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December 27, 2023

Updating estimates; introducing Q1 FY24 forecast

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model ahead of Q4 report, our revised forecast is as follows: For Q4 FY23, we expect Connected TV revenue of $62m, Desktop revenue of $30m and Mobile revenue of $69m. We…

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December 21, 2023

Introducing Q1 FY24 estimates

By Vasily Karasyov

We are introducing Q1 FY24 estimates. Our rating and price target remain unchanged. Q1 FY24: We are modeling $48m in Measurement revenue, $84m in activation and $12m in Supply-side revenue. Our Adjusted Ebitda forecast is $39m…

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December 18, 2023

Growth is more durable than it looks; a deeper dive into the key metrics

By Vasily Karasyov

Our analysis of the key metrics trajectory in Q3, the first full quarter of AXON 2, gives us incremental conviction in sustainability of Software Platform revenue growth. As we show below, Q/Q progression of installs…

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December 3, 2023

To materiality and beyond! Shopper marketing revenue growth to accelerate in FY24

By Vasily Karasyov

In this note we show that, based on what we see as fairly conservative assumptions, shopper marketing should become a legitimate contributor to growth next year. We estimate it will account for 8.6% of total…

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November 26, 2023

Upgrading to Buy

By Vasily Karasyov

We are upgrading ROKU shares to buy from Neutral as we now believe that room for upside to FY24 consensus forecast is enough to allow for more meaningful upward estimates revisions than we have seen…

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November 14, 2023

Updating model following Q3 report

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our model to reflect Q3 results and the guidance for Q4. Q4 FY23: Smart TV shipments of 1.4m, Device segment revenue of $333m and gross profit of ($7m), Platform+ revenue of $166m, gross…

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November 13, 2023

Model update

By Vasily Karasyov

We are updating our estimates following Q3 report. Our Buy rating and price target of $44 remain unchanged. Our latest estimates are: Q4 FY23: We are modeling $61m in Measurement revenue, $99m in activation and…

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November 12, 2023

December ’22 but in October ’23

By Vasily Karasyov

We have seen the TTD story go through rough periods before and all of them proved to be relatively short lived. The most recent industry-wide brand advertising spending softness which impacted TTD revenue growth occurred…

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November 9, 2023

FIRST LOOK

By Vasily Karasyov

A very unusual weak guide for revenue of “at least $580m” in Q4 which is 5% below the consensus. We will be looking for a detailed explanation on the call for this black swan-level event….

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